tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-78673322299626050582024-02-20T02:56:55.319-08:00AIM Investor JournalInvestment Journal. Part time AIM Investor. Offering stock research and analysis, historic and peer comparisons, identifying catalysts, forecasting and gauging sentiment. Welcome discussion and requests.Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-16168854714539383022017-02-13T09:55:00.001-08:002017-02-13T10:03:54.269-08:00Hayward Tyler update the market"Successful completion of loan note raise"<br />
<br />
Time to restock and take
note as to what the f*ck is happening here!<br />
<br />
The share price has been decimated from 95p in October 2016 down to 46p today but has the market finally been appeased?<br />
<br />
If you follow my posts on <a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/shareChat.asp?page=1&ShareTicker=HAYT#15549845" target="_blank">LSE</a> then you will know I
said last time I didn't expect a new repayment date beyond 31 March even
though I secretly hoped it would be to tie in with the relaxed
covenants.<br />
<br />
So while it's disappointing they could only extend four weeks, we have however raised more from the loan note than we
announced we were going to previously!<br />
<br />
The £3.0m of short-term
borrowings due under the RCF was to be paid by 31 January 2017 so
presumably they have been hammering out an agreement since then and two
weeks late here are the amended terms. The fear driving HAYT lower was a breakdown in
communication which might lead to something altogether less desirable.
But that's not what today's update reveals.<br />
<br />
We have raised £0.6m (£0.4m was mentioned last time) which leaves
a potential £0.3m worth of loan notes we can further draw upon.
Hopefully we don't have to from now on!<br />
<br />
Together with the £2.1m cash
at hand mentioned in a company update from mid December, it places us a whisker away from the £3m
total due in two weeks time. Cash-flow must have been tight and this is a concern I think
the market has been and will now continue to be aware of. The questions of tight cash-flow /
generation may prevail until final results are released and we can get a better understanding of how the company has performed.<br />
<br />
But I
expect this will be share price bottom given the imminent repayment of the £2.4m loan.
Next week if they hope to get it in prior to week following (27th-28th).<br />
<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
13 February 2017<br />
<br />
Successful completion of <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default"><span class="vm-hook" style="border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); color: #009900;">loan</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="display: inline-block;"></span></span> note raise<br />
<br />
Hayward
Tyler Group plc ("HTG", the "Company" or "Group"), the specialist
engineering Group, comprising the operating companies of Hayward Tyler
and Peter Brotherhood, is pleased to announce the successful completion
of its latest loan note issue at £0.6m. The loan notes carry a 1-year
term and pay interest at 6.75%. Proceeds of this issue will be used to
reduce the Company's revolving credit facility ("RCF") with Royal Bank
of Scotland ("RBS") by £0.6m.<br />
<br />
The Group continues to have a
supportive relationship with RBS, which has now agreed to extend the
repayment date of the remaining <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default"><span class="vm-hook" style="border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); color: #009900;">balance</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="display: inline-block;"></span></span> of the £2.4m short term borrowings under the RCF to 28 February 2017. <br />
<br />
Further updates regarding the repayment of the £2.4m short term borrowings will be made in due course.</blockquote>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-7424021567939241892017-02-13T08:46:00.001-08:002017-02-13T08:51:03.514-08:00China Car Sales for January stronger than expectedAs expected sales
for the first month of 2017 are down from December's record highs<br />
<br />
A range of factors were expected to contribute to a dampening of data. The
Chinese New Year was almost a week earlier I believe, many people
therefore had their holidays around 7-8 days earlier than last year (my
holiday came much earlier) and when that happens hundreds of millions of
people travel the length and breadth of the country to return home to
be with their families (or fly somewhere warm for two weeks). As a
result major cities and economic / business hubs become deserted and the streets are literally deserted. It's not unusual in China, it happens every year, but at different times according to the Lunar Calendar. Results were also impacted by the anticipated removal of tax breaks late last year which was a major reason for record sales in December. <br />
<br />
"Total <span class="vm-hook-outer vm-hook-default"><span class="vm-hook" style="border-color: transparent transparent rgb(0 , 153 , 0); color: #009900;">Vehicle</span><span class="vm-hook-icon" style="display: inline-block;"></span></span>
Sales in China decreased to 2520000 in January from 3057300 in December
of 2016. Total Vehicle Sales in China averaged 925965.41 from 1997
until 2017, reaching an all time high of 3057300 in December of 2016"<br />
<a href="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales" target="_blank">http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales</a><br />
<br />
Note
the following article talks about car sales GROWTH and not actual
month-to-month comparison. January sales still way up on 2016 as the
chart from the link above suggests. Otherwise a bullish write-up. Yale
Zhang, managing director at consultancy Automotive Foresight, said
January’s sales figure was better than market forecasts, as analysts
expected a decline in year-on-year sales because of the Lunar New Year
holiday. <br />
<a href="http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2070458/chinas-car-sales-growth-hits-brakes-january-tax-cut-rollback">http://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/2070458/chinas-car-sales-growth-hits-brakes-january-tax-cut-rollback</a><br />
<br />
I liked this little snippet "The country's vehicle market expanded by almost 14% to just over 28m vehicles last year"<br />
<a href="http://www.just-auto.com/news/china-passenger-vehicle-sales-drop-10-in-january_id174847.aspx" target="_blank">http://www.just-auto.com/news/china-passenger-vehicle-sales-drop-10-in-january_id174847.aspx</a><br />
<br />
This
article compliments by adding "Looking at it another way, China bought
more cars last year than there are people in Australia, and a third of
those were SUVs". Just lol. Incredible right? <br />
<a class="linkBlue" href="https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/chart-the-jaw-dropping-growth-in-chinese-car-sales/ar-AAmRrnw" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/chart-the-jaw-dropping-growth-in-chinese-car-sales/ar-AAmRrnw</a><br />
<br />
Sales
growth for battery electric and plug-in hybrid cars also dropped last
month as Beijing requires all automakers to re-apply for their models to
receive subsidies under a stricter regime following allegations of
subsidy cheating.<br />
<a class="linkBlue" href="http://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/china-vehicles-sales-in-january-grew-at-their-slowest-pace-in-almost-a-year/57124187" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://auto.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/industry/china-vehicles-sales-in-january-grew-at-their-slowest-pace-in-almost-a-year/57124187</a><br />
<br />
"Factory
owners can't sell cars they have now as they are not on the list, and
are worried they won't get the subsidies either," said Xu Haidong,
CAAM's assistant secretary general. "This has had an impact on new
energy vehicles' sales and is the reason behind the big drop-off."<br />
<a class="linkBlue" href="http://www.reuters.com/article/china-autos-sales-idUSL4N1FY24Z" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://www.reuters.com/article/china-autos-sales-idUSL4N1FY24Z</a><br />
<br />
Overall if we check how our PGM metals are performing today in the wake of results they are down having retreated from recent highs along with other commodities like gold and silver. USD strength is behind this in my view. I would hazard a guess that Trump in the media abroad, behaving
'properly' (or as best as can be hoped) is a positive sign for USD
strength going forward. It would therefore be wise to sell down precious
metal related positions prior to these events. Trump has not stood by
his America first rhetoric on a number of occasions during
'diplo-meets'. <br />
<br />
Trump managed to avoid "repeating accusations
that Japan was one of several countries devaluing their currencies to
the disadvantage of the U.S." in the meeting with Abe. <br />
<br />
"Abe and
Trump also agreed to hold an economic dialogue after Trump withdrew the
U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement. Market sentiment also
received a boost after Trump agreed to honor the "one China" policy
during a phone call with China's leader Xi Jinping late last week."<br />
<br />
But
I would think once the media frenzy cools and markets take stock,
economic data will continue to lead the USD lower. US sentiment is also
riding high following a ramptastic remark made last thursday, that
certain posters across LSE would be proud of lol. He said he
would be announcing something over the next two or three weeks that
would be “phenomenal” in terms of tax, without providing any additional
details. <br />
<br />
Despite Dollar dominance over the Euro and Sterling
which is a trend likely to continue, all three will likely remain
inferior to rising precious metal prices expected to continue as this year progresses. <br />
<br />
I hold LMI, SLP, FRES, RRS, CMCL, SHG and a couple of explorers.<br />
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-74395488744475856662016-12-27T21:47:00.002-08:002016-12-28T02:28:48.704-08:00Precious Metals Outlook – analysis and discussion<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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</xml><![endif]-->It’s no secret palladium has performed poorly in the lead up
to Christmas. Since it peaked at $776/oz on 1st December, (60% up over 11
months) support has fallen away rapidly with the metal trading down at $654/oz.
Platinum has by comparison enjoyed a relatively stable month having already
fallen in the weeks earlier. The reasons behind this correction are at this
point difficult to determine given lack of information but I doubt Nymex
contracts demand for March delivery suddenly collapsed. More likely palladium
prices are correcting their October-December rally, a move overdue given that
other precious metals have been trending lower.<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Around the 21st December an article titled ‘Chinese tax
breaks do nothing for palladium price’ was published. This is the news that
China has decided to extend tax breaks on the purchase of small vehicles into
2017. The Chinese tax rate on such purchases has been 5% since October 2015 and
will be lifted to 7.5%, offering incentive as it remains below the usual 10%
rate. Buyers pay the vehicle-purchase tax, which is applied to vehicle prices
before the 17% value-added tax.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Many analysts were predicting the tax break would be left to
expire at the end of the year and consequentially demand for small vehicles
would be impacted. Approximately 75% of palladium demand comes from the
auto-catalyst sector, specifically in gasoline engines and the two largest markets
are the Chinese and US given diesel’s lack of market presence. Platinum loads
are higher in diesel engines, but on a proportional basis demand from the auto
industry is roughly 40% with jewellery responsible for the bulk of the
remainder. So this move should be a positive signal for palladium in the short
term as it will continue to encourage price-sensitive buyers of gasoline fed
vehicles.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Moody’s Investor Service suggests the extension “should keep
vehicle-purchase prices in the world number one auto market chugging along”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The ratings agency believes owing to the tax-break
extension, auto sales growth in 2017 could be higher than its previous
expectation of 2.7%, which reflected the expiration of the tax break, although
growth in 2017 will be slower given the reduced tax break and "potential
pull forward of demand to 2016 from 2017 because of the expectation that the
tax break would expire." While the US market has seen strong growth in
recent years, China's car industry recorded a 18% jump in sales in June and may
have grown by double digits during 2016 to more than 23 million vehicles.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Looking back a little further the Chinese government
previously cut the vehicle-purchase tax to 5% from 10% between 20 January 2009
and 31 December 2009. It later extended the tax-relief period to the end of
2010, but raised the rate to 7.5% exactly as we are seeing now. The 2009 tax
cut stimulated year-over-year auto sales growth to 45.5% in 2009 and to 32.5%
in 2010 from 6.6% in 2008, according to the China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The markets reaction to the news suggests little short term
impact, given buyers of palladium pushed prices to year highs only 2-3 weeks
prior to this decision when it was expected the tax break would expire and
auto-catalyst demand would subside in 2017. The market is instead being pulled
higher and recently sold lower by greater forces and I’m of the view that
short-term tax decisions bear little consequence to the trading price of
purchasers who demand physical palladium. Norilsk are buying back palladium at
spot prices to ensure long term stable supply to its customers and the
transparency surrounding this development will no doubt be feeding into other
investor rationale.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
I would like to highlight segments of recent PGM market
analysis released by Heraeus to close. Ongoing Dollar strength, the weakening
Gold price, weak Chinese demand in the jewellery sector and a currently
sluggish demand from the automobile sector, especially for diesel engines are
the main reasons for current platinum weakness. Interesting to note the
Platinum-Palladium spread fell to a level not seen since April 2002. A further
convergence of the prices could therefore not be entirely unreasonable given
stronger growth for gasoline engines in the coming year and the spot price is
trading below major platinum producer costs. Last point worth considering “the
Nymex short positions reached the highest level since February 2016, just under
1.28 million ounces.” How many more shorts will pile in now that Platinum are
trading off 9 month lows? </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Regarding Palladium’s recent surge to levels not seen since
Autumn 2015 it should be noted that the news about restricted liquidity in
bullion “is probably the main driver”. Rhodium is currently having its best quarter
and according to the analysis even at current prices there is “a lot of buying
interest” thanks to strong demand from the chemical and automotive industries.
Iridium continues to trade at a high level also, with relatively small
quantities traded at a very high level. Over the medium term liquidity issues
“would indicate a further price rise”.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<a href="http://www.mining.com/chinese-tax-breaks-nothing-palladium-price/" target="_blank"> http://www.mining.com/chinese-tax-breaks-nothing-palladium-price/ </a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/goog_1862506236"> </a></span><a href="https://www.heraeus.com/en/hmm/market_reports/market_reports.aspx">https://www.heraeus.com/en/hmm/market_reports/market_reports.aspx</a><br />
<span style="color: white;">. </span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
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<![endif]-->Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-72420610281098153102016-08-15T06:52:00.001-07:002016-12-27T22:10:24.394-08:00Platinum Sector Developments Two developments have caught my eye today. <br />
<br />
Firstly news that Miner Anglo American has come under pressure by its largest investor to sell its platinum mines to a state-backed vehicle. This has pushed the share price higher in early trading and it's no surprise given their open intentions to buy back platinum operations in the national interest. South Africa's pension fund the Public Investment Corporation (PIC) will likely not relent on this course given the delicate balance of platinum supply in the country. The PIC is reportedly looking to roll its other platinum interests into a new national mining company to rival the other majors in the country and this acquisition would fit the bill. Whether or not this deal ever comes to fruition it shows the appetite for platinum by national backed vehicles like the PIC. Given our profitable operations and low market valuation we may one day be the focus of a hostile takeover although more likely we will see institutional buying in the lead up to talks I would think. Despite being a small operation with limited future expansion prospects we are very profitable and would be a sensible addition to PIC's portfolio of assets given they are looking to sweep up platinum operations. <br />
<br />
The second item for discussion is news that Zimbabwe are tightening regulations in the mining industry which will potentially impact platinum mine investment in the country. Zimbabwe produces around 8.5% of the world's platinum, the world's third largest producer and in terms of palladium is ranked fourth largest.<br />
<br />
"A report by Reuters over the weekend says the draft bill, which has been more than a decade in the making, includes a provision that authorities will only issue mining rights to companies listed on the Zimbabwe stock exchange."<br />
<br />
The majors operating in Zimbabwe are primarily platinum group metals companies such as Anglo American Platinum, Impala Platinum through its Zimplats subsidiary and Aquarius Platinum but none are currently listed on the Zimbabwe stock exchange. Foreign companies must also sell a majority stake (51%) to local investors under the country's indigenization laws. Recent developments suggest a deepening protectionist trend emerging in the country. <br />
<br />
The Zimbabwe government earlier this year revoked the licences of all diamond mining companies operating inside the country. They consolidated diamond mining in the country's rich Marange fields under a state-owned entity. Foreign miners have also been ordered to return mineral leases which the state says is not being developed at 'a fast enough pace'. In January last year the country introduced a platinum export tax but suspended it once majors Amplats, Implats and Aquarius agreed to support local metal processing prior to export. Such government backed moves to control the industry heightens investor risk and will likely result in reduced investment, with neighbouring producers such as South African companies benefiting.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/14/anglo-american-board-resists-pic-bid-for-platinum-business/">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/08/14/anglo-american-board-resists-pic-bid-for-platinum-business/</a><br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/goog_443893680"><br /></a>
<a href="http://www.mining.com/draft-bill-says-list-harare-want-mine-zimbabwe">http://www.mining.com/draft-bill-says-list-harare-want-mine-zimbabwe</a><br />
<span style="color: white;">. </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-68601805238870569322016-03-18T10:08:00.002-07:002016-04-24T20:16:39.991-07:00With the Malaysian Ringgit rising is it now time to invest in Malaysian small-caps? <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqaWfmwwgjk3rFfm5x1fKkZDkvmaa-xxRZpaCi3SWUQBNT_nukhCUEhB2EHjG-S4C4-tG4LmjbeJytquV0SLu0mu7YRPuQ-yhyS69sTui6VsnzWdia5O_POzxB5LYU7s-_617f6ERgPcpm/s1600/MBO+5yr+chart+mar16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="267" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqaWfmwwgjk3rFfm5x1fKkZDkvmaa-xxRZpaCi3SWUQBNT_nukhCUEhB2EHjG-S4C4-tG4LmjbeJytquV0SLu0mu7YRPuQ-yhyS69sTui6VsnzWdia5O_POzxB5LYU7s-_617f6ERgPcpm/s400/MBO+5yr+chart+mar16.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
I've always fancied MobilityOne (MBO) ever since that fateful
week in January 2015 when the stock bounced off it's 52 week low, ending
the month more than 100% higher. What follows is a breakdown of the key
indicators. <br />
<br />
<b>REVENUE</b><br />
<div class="c10">
The long
term trend looks positive, demonstrating consecutive revenue growth
every six months in all but three of the fifteen HY periods assessed.
The company explored new avenues in the wake of the financial crisis and
managed to mitigate <span class="c1">the slowdown in the global economy. </span><span class="c1"></span></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtMZA7xiDV8PYsBb4llBRHIzpjLG7YF-fIt5NUF2nZz2BwBdAqU6ImN7G-aAxh0UH_ktcAI4fh5JUe8b-8qFOtDJhRkKEam7c38shCnxmy2DNBro09Oxg1yflslXo9DHuHW1Cz6Kpv-pzf/s1600/Revenue+MBO.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtMZA7xiDV8PYsBb4llBRHIzpjLG7YF-fIt5NUF2nZz2BwBdAqU6ImN7G-aAxh0UH_ktcAI4fh5JUe8b-8qFOtDJhRkKEam7c38shCnxmy2DNBro09Oxg1yflslXo9DHuHW1Cz6Kpv-pzf/s400/Revenue+MBO.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
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<br />
<b>GROSS PROFIT</b><br />
MobilityOne's revenue stream has been growing from strength to strength but
what of it's profits? Are the company products and the way in which it trades
generating profits if any? I've compiled the figures for revenue and
the gross profits during each of the 6 month period since 2008. What the chart
shows is a parallel correlation between the revenue and the gross profit booked.
The chart figures are in (GBP) millions, with the left-side measuring revenue
and the right-side gross profit. As revenue has increased so
has gross profits.<br />
<br />
We should also take into account that the value of the MYR
against the GBP (in which the accounts are reported) increased from 2008 up
until 2010 rather quickly and remained stable until around mid 2013 before it
began to lose value. Gross profits appeared stronger perhaps in part to the
stronger currency exchange. More recently the MYR has lost purchasing power
against the GBP and we saw that reflected in weaker gross profits despite
record revenues in the first half of 2015. The second half results may suffer
as a result of the extreme currency fluctuation during the latter half of the
year. However since the start of the year the MYR has strengthened and regained
some its losses which should reflect well in the first half 2016 results to be
released in September.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj488CcSLZXQM_P_lOtCiZ5sr51G0Ur9ifXJcqf_WzOZx0TfH0FmRLIG0-ub-EJl52tsXuPxpkeIRvUG1ehoL1_b8AtK4eZvAcO7qZIpQQvXL7gJxrJEsBcpq68ynYYN5lxLQCVTNQ_pV75/s1600/rev+vs+gross+prof.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj488CcSLZXQM_P_lOtCiZ5sr51G0Ur9ifXJcqf_WzOZx0TfH0FmRLIG0-ub-EJl52tsXuPxpkeIRvUG1ehoL1_b8AtK4eZvAcO7qZIpQQvXL7gJxrJEsBcpq68ynYYN5lxLQCVTNQ_pV75/s400/rev+vs+gross+prof.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>NET PROFIT</b><br />
The company have had a mixed performance in recent years, struggling to keep above water in some periods, but now appear to be on a stable growth platform. The loss booked in H213 was particularly bad due to the write-down of loss-making assets the company disposed of following a policy shift towards domestic trade. They also suffered from impairments in the first half of 2014 which impacted profits. During slower periods MBO have accessed loan facilities and received the support from Directors through in-house loans providing cheap access to finance. They have had no problems in paying down these facilities as will be illustrated a little later.<br />
<br />
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<br />
Operating profits are often squeezed due to the high cost of sales involved,
continuing product research & development and previous expansion into
emerging markets. The latter factor in particular has drained positive net
cash-flow in an effort to expand into new territories, specifically Indonesia,
Cambodia and the Philippines. The company have now disposed of their loss-making
ventures and written down assets, stripping out excessive waste and are beginning
to gain traction in the domestic market with operating profits booked in the
past three periods.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUxW1P__9H2y3EVm7BZAA7vxR9yoAlkV6iylU6q0Ox77uDSwNMFcKVgD9ztlNMF3rtiLnOBxgIEwtm2pt6w8kxy94uB6qK6vXqIrZsMgdndLPtkuNVOl1wnC1H5ypAghWJRkMgDZ2cW1g5/s1600/Net+P+MBO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUxW1P__9H2y3EVm7BZAA7vxR9yoAlkV6iylU6q0Ox77uDSwNMFcKVgD9ztlNMF3rtiLnOBxgIEwtm2pt6w8kxy94uB6qK6vXqIrZsMgdndLPtkuNVOl1wnC1H5ypAghWJRkMgDZ2cW1g5/s400/Net+P+MBO.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<b>ASSETS & LIABILITIES</b><br />
The assets & liabilities make very interesting reading and I would encourage those interested to check out the <b><i><a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MBO&ArticleCode=2it9f1wo&ArticleHeadline=Final_Results" target="_blank">FY 2013 accounts</a></i></b> in order to understand the reasons why Net Assets fell considerably in the second half of 2013. The charts below show Net Assets fell considerably and have held around the same level for two years. Net Current Assets held have occasionally dipped into negative territory however more recently appear to be strengthening towards levels last seen in 2008-09.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9vPXzdnfBvu6Ghi263yk9GfP12snDUPlPKeTeYBp_paCyGszpcyG8mQ4jTOeR2T7lXIjlSS-eb3uTkwe4zdrgiGKJCj0T21-DNmLj8emw37IXNueQaYUrs5KxUajq8f_GBejkdJd-NqCm/s1600/NCA+MBO.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj9vPXzdnfBvu6Ghi263yk9GfP12snDUPlPKeTeYBp_paCyGszpcyG8mQ4jTOeR2T7lXIjlSS-eb3uTkwe4zdrgiGKJCj0T21-DNmLj8emw37IXNueQaYUrs5KxUajq8f_GBejkdJd-NqCm/s400/NCA+MBO.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This chart better illustrates the Net Current Asset position. <span class="_Tgc">The value of net current assets is often the preferred indicator of company health as it deals with working capital and other measures that affect the company's short-term financial health. Whilst net assets have suffered in the past due to writedowns the company has boosted it's short term net capacity. More on this later.</span><br />
<b></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCI-83hLXd-b2sYoeD5cQ5uyrX4G9Yz_1jt86qqF2FTSHqhLvlqKDLh-lBzKaIjNc7hPcjepeism5h1OQb7hV7M7_k9ZFe8q4JlZShb8VxUPjDZBs9UuPI_3wZugfuShKIwqI8N8Pdb8wC/s1600/NCA+MBO+3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="237" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCI-83hLXd-b2sYoeD5cQ5uyrX4G9Yz_1jt86qqF2FTSHqhLvlqKDLh-lBzKaIjNc7hPcjepeism5h1OQb7hV7M7_k9ZFe8q4JlZShb8VxUPjDZBs9UuPI_3wZugfuShKIwqI8N8Pdb8wC/s400/NCA+MBO+3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<b></b><br />
Here's the growing Net Current Asset value over the Net Asset position which appears to have bottomed. Fundamentally, Net Assets shouldn't suffer another shock as the value attributed to such has been much reduced. Add to this the company recently sunk £330k into purchasing new headquarters in Kuala Lumpar which is a hard asset. The Net Asset position doesn't reflect the impressive growth the company has experienced nor the increasing current asset position away from non-current assets. In June 2008 current assets were worth just £1.55m and by June 2015 they were worth almost £4.0m!<br />
<b></b><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGurDure8U4ylrw5AO05tgt7ctDjqYRBjay8f_9ETWt2Yek0Ehq464mNGBSqZZNosgpaKQ3XdUa1aE2vhQal5Sh0Ysg73beBq0omJFjfxbocJ7GwhdfHZlrxoEgF04lVPkZQNQWCYHKk5e/s1600/NCA+MBO+2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGurDure8U4ylrw5AO05tgt7ctDjqYRBjay8f_9ETWt2Yek0Ehq464mNGBSqZZNosgpaKQ3XdUa1aE2vhQal5Sh0Ysg73beBq0omJFjfxbocJ7GwhdfHZlrxoEgF04lVPkZQNQWCYHKk5e/s400/NCA+MBO+2.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<b></b><br />
<b>NET CASH / DEBT</b><br />
Cash held on the balance sheet at the end of each 6 month period has increased steadily for the most part besides H113. A steady trend upwards. The amount of debt held fluctuates as the company draws down on short-term loans and repays when it is due. Net debt peaked in the second half of 2011 at more than twice the total cash held. Since then Net debt fell to £442k in the first half of 2014. It shot higher in the second half of the year owing to a property purchase, increasing receivables and short term loans to cover the cash-flow. Crucially we saw a huge reduction in net debt over 6 months from £1,443,112 at H2 2014 to £734,128 today!<br />
<br />
The chart suggests the BoD have a 'cash-retention' policy where possible to increase the amount held at every half year interval. This has it's benefits, providing easy means of cash-flow and shoring up current accounts. It also looks healthy on the balance sheets. We can also deduce that the company prefer to use free cash-flow to reduce loans rather than significantly increase the sums of cash held. The company has a large trading account surplus and inventories to boot which fluctuate according to demand and are partly responsible for the net debt swings.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZMeOU7IxjxmJn5_g5ohGXR9Nm2IB3mMOocDw_pJ2kkhw6X3Li10zn5G8HXJv-hEgRXRfW-n1AIU4KAeinmK1tTYFG_7tuDpTYSiwLuHcSz2EQge2XmTtf2AH5UzdQ6AeOJMFmDSwMv6tN/s1600/MBO+Net+Cash-debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZMeOU7IxjxmJn5_g5ohGXR9Nm2IB3mMOocDw_pJ2kkhw6X3Li10zn5G8HXJv-hEgRXRfW-n1AIU4KAeinmK1tTYFG_7tuDpTYSiwLuHcSz2EQge2XmTtf2AH5UzdQ6AeOJMFmDSwMv6tN/s400/MBO+Net+Cash-debt.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b> </b><br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>INVENTORIES & TRADE RECEIVABLES (ITOR) vs TRADE & OTHER PAYABLES (TOP)</b><br />
If we focus on the non-cash current assets it's clear again that the scale of the company operations have increased significantly over the past 7 years. Inventories made up a greater proportion of ITOR in 2008 but due to lack of trade the company had relatively little Trade & Other Receivables due. But the trend began to improve in 2010 about the time loans increased and Net Debt also. ITOR peaked in H1 2011 whilst Net Debt peaked in the second half of the year. Inventories have since then been depleted whilst cash has continued to increase on the balance sheet. We saw one anomaly in H214 as loans increased and Net Debt also reversed it's falling trend. At this time the company took out a loan for the new headquarters in Kuala Lumpar. It also appears that Trade & Other Receivables spiked up at the same time which was unfortunate, most probably a series of late or due payments resulting from the company changing it's growth policy to domestic markets. Results in H1 2015 showed this to be an anomaly as Net Debt fell at the fastest pace on record helped by a strong operational performance and the collection of Trade and Other Receivables.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ8Ilu4COqW5IEAJ3wTUI60AVDpuX8kkExYjlyX79MFeOz0r470bY87z-lFF6t21ln4pkhpJHurH8ck4zk-MP-vb9kk-9KK_320MTNeK4CVJtCAOic-yVYB9h0IFiEC0uiSyLZ3rdq0I_V/s1600/MBO+ITOR.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJ8Ilu4COqW5IEAJ3wTUI60AVDpuX8kkExYjlyX79MFeOz0r470bY87z-lFF6t21ln4pkhpJHurH8ck4zk-MP-vb9kk-9KK_320MTNeK4CVJtCAOic-yVYB9h0IFiEC0uiSyLZ3rdq0I_V/s400/MBO+ITOR.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
This chart shows a clear correlation between the Inventories & Trade Receivables less the Trade and Other Payables (we will call this Net ITOR) in comparison with the Net Debt position over the past 7 years. What we see are clear parallels between a rising Net ITOR and a rising Net Debt position. We know that because the greater proportion of ITOR has been receivables due rather than stocking up on inventory, the company has financed cash-flow through short term loans (expanding Net Debt). What the chart doesn't illustrate is that as both Net ITOR and Net Debt have fallen in tandem, the balance sheet has actually expanded. The company are moving towards Net cash and an even ITOR/TOP balance. I would hope to see a Net Cash position in the coming years.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW-AcCeyvIT7a_Cz2KgBWe31kGKSLzOy88mnNS6dn0iCQb3B-ZikOqUrfNEmzq-rmwKAMFuwh0P2k0F3dzz0phanl4jRwEJoZ8yp4RnoW9ai2LIoVI-dkSF3oUcu9f9OBqbu6oP39fCeCg/s1600/MBO+ITOR+net+vs+net+debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW-AcCeyvIT7a_Cz2KgBWe31kGKSLzOy88mnNS6dn0iCQb3B-ZikOqUrfNEmzq-rmwKAMFuwh0P2k0F3dzz0phanl4jRwEJoZ8yp4RnoW9ai2LIoVI-dkSF3oUcu9f9OBqbu6oP39fCeCg/s400/MBO+ITOR+net+vs+net+debt.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>NET OPERATING CASH-FLOW</b><br />
Net Operating Cash-Flow is what the company generates from it's operations after interest among other things. Crucially it does not included Finance and Investing cash-flow, such income and expenditure like the purchase of property and the draw-down of a loan. This is purely an operational performance indicator. It is normal for it to fluctuate between each half. What the figures show is that operations were loss making for about 4 years but have since performed well aside from in 2014. Net Current Assets and Net cash-flow from operations were at their highest point since 2009.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJJWp8j3Dgfb1XB9lDLMzIx71ZGxXR4m8EGp3eARkrw0p38Ef1lDcsMkkjX2yd0pkMZNbwjmHWBMdzgBgU75aiW3hNLxE78l1kemShyphenhyphennVJyDiYmQ14glg3sArXNjfMMEfiIXsB7Rg8nNkt/s1600/MBO+Op+cash-flow+vs+Net+CA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJJWp8j3Dgfb1XB9lDLMzIx71ZGxXR4m8EGp3eARkrw0p38Ef1lDcsMkkjX2yd0pkMZNbwjmHWBMdzgBgU75aiW3hNLxE78l1kemShyphenhyphennVJyDiYmQ14glg3sArXNjfMMEfiIXsB7Rg8nNkt/s400/MBO+Op+cash-flow+vs+Net+CA.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
The chart below better illustrates the trend. You would expect Net Current Assets and Net Debt to show similar correlations and they do. However we can also see a similar trend with the Net Operating cash-flow and Net Debt. If cash-flow from operations is strong in the period Net Debt falls. When the company are short of cash the Net Debt increases. What's exciting is that the company are headed towards another strong finish (H2 2015) which should see Current Assets increase, strong Net Operating cash-flow reducing the company's reliance on short term loans. In other words a reduction in Net Debt. All this will help reduce financing costs (interest).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTt0k8eImWc0GAbnpOcxHFceBCyJt3k9syOaHkpeCvbKWVdwJH3iaoOrVkbq3oBdWvsqE11Kp4uMreTOjMetviMIrLEV7g1pL9vRQn1gUFOtjSGoPk9hhyXWwuT186ZMhxAhoFE07ZDvbt/s1600/MBO+Op+cash-flow+vs+Net+CA+vs+Net+debt.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="233" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTt0k8eImWc0GAbnpOcxHFceBCyJt3k9syOaHkpeCvbKWVdwJH3iaoOrVkbq3oBdWvsqE11Kp4uMreTOjMetviMIrLEV7g1pL9vRQn1gUFOtjSGoPk9hhyXWwuT186ZMhxAhoFE07ZDvbt/s400/MBO+Op+cash-flow+vs+Net+CA+vs+Net+debt.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
<b>INVESTMENT CASE</b><br />
I'm keen to reiterate this company are valued at £2.5 million on AIM.
The markets should in theory forward value the company earnings and
trading outlook. Instead this stock has been left largely ignored since
June-July 2015. There was a large bounce on increased trading in January
2015 but otherwise volumes in general have been poor ever since November 2013.<br />
<br />
If you take the operating profit figures it correlates well with the falling share-price over this period. More recently we have seen a return to profits but as yet this hasn't been reflected in the market value. The ringgits devaluation and general market weakening since the Autumn 2015 has kept investors at bay. Small-caps have suffered greatly. High growth countries such as Malaysia and its neigbours should do well in the coming decade compared to the ailing US whose economy is plagued with all manner of social and economic issues. Europe is an even greater concern.<br />
<br />
More to the point, I would choose long established companies such as MBO that are largely ignored by investors, have only recently begun to report significant amounts of profit (in comparison to their market value) and are cash positive or are moving quickly towards it. Whilst MBO has seen it's net asset position (in particular non-current assets) fall as a result of failed ventures abroad it has responded well looking to capitalise on domestic share and expand its business through profitable trade. As a result, operating profits are improving, free cash is reducing the net debt position very quickly and the company are in a position to boost revenues through existing market places. I expect this trend to continue and will gain market recognition in the coming years.<br />
<br />Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-65150083373278944972015-10-26T09:08:00.000-07:002016-03-18T07:50:26.539-07:00MobilityOne’s Half Year performance boasts a post-tax profit for first time since 2012<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"> The signs were here late last
year. Management were proactive and enacted a disposal of loss-making and
non-core assets. The share price bottomed following an improvement to the
cash-flow figures however the balance sheet remained a little uncertain
following the increase in net debt. First half 2015 results have revealed that
was indeed a one-off increase, with the net debt position likely to fall as has
been the trend previously and for the first time since 2012 the company has
reported an interim post-tax profit.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">It has been the case for a long
time that most of the company’s revenue and profit is generated in the latter
half of the year. So it’s encouraging to read MBO have generated record
revenues in the six month period and solid operating profits of £218,664. This
follows an impressive second half performance last year when the company booked
£379,688 operating profit in the final 6 months of 2014. The news was poorly
received however, the share price has barely moved all summer. The prime reason
being liquidity here remains very low with over 78% of the share capital held
by long term investors. It’s worth a quick reminder who holds what.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS<br />
As at 23 June 2015, the Company had been notified of the following beneficial
interests in 3% or more of the issued share capital pursuant to Part VI of
Article 110 of the Companies (Jersey) Law 1991:<br />
<br />
Total of 83,336,323 shares or 78.4% of the capital held by <br />
<br />
1. Dato’ Hussian @ Rizal bin A. Rahman (‘Dato’ Hussian’) (53,465,724 shares =
50.29%)<br />
2. Thornbeam Limited (16,048,922 shares = 15.10%<br />
3. Dato’ Shamsir bin Omar (9,131,677 shares = 8.59%)<br />
4. Perbadanan Nasional Berhad (4,690,000 shares = 4.41%)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />
The freefloat is currently 22,962,457 shares (21.6%). </span><br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFXUpH5ZJscquU6FAvGQ9gyw5CVDk9tnyDbQUbxjUhcN4wUG7qWsi6-fs8OEAjDKbRnlXb9W5oLoldIhf_QL8e5iHv7ok4C7oso_clx8PWDOdUyCsa71RUqSMSm2rnfRdML3-fnJLyFrLR/s1600/shareholders_mar16.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFXUpH5ZJscquU6FAvGQ9gyw5CVDk9tnyDbQUbxjUhcN4wUG7qWsi6-fs8OEAjDKbRnlXb9W5oLoldIhf_QL8e5iHv7ok4C7oso_clx8PWDOdUyCsa71RUqSMSm2rnfRdML3-fnJLyFrLR/s400/shareholders_mar16.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
<br />
THE INVESTMENT CASE<br />
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Infrequent updates makes
for little excitement. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But things can
change. As we saw last January the share price moved very quickly for no reason
following some buying pressure. Perhaps it was a delayed market reaction,
rumour or value traders as over 2.25 million shares exchanged hands. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The market capitalisation is
currently less than £2.8 million and as a holder I’m fairly confident this will
look cheap in the next 12 months. The question all investors will ask
themselves is when will this return investment value.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">So looking at the latest set of
results MBO turned revenue of £31.3 million in the first half! That’s up over
33% on the same period last year (H114: £23.5 million). This is a huge increase
for a small-cap company. What’s potentially more exciting is that second half
trading is always higher! Even if we use conservative forecasts we are looking
at more than £60 million revenue this year compared to £53 million in 2014. I
think it will come in around £65 million assuming they can maintain this
momentum. Revenue growth is a key driver and indicates product demand is on the
rise. Factoring in the sale of subsidy holdings in the Cambodian and Indonesian
operations during March 2014, it’s clear the Group's mobile phone prepaid
airtime reload and bill payment business is therefore expanding at its quickest
pace, even as the weakening Malaysian Ringgit impacts currency conversion.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The Group recorded an operating
profit of £218,664 in H115 compared to £41,137 for H114, an improvement and by
no means a paltry amount. The exchange rate has negatively impacted the value
of profits in (£) Sterling. MBO’s international remittance services (IRS), of
which they had 6 continued to ‘incur losses’ and was subsequently discontinued
in the period. We can deduce that had they been disposed of earlier, the
headline operating profit would be higher. Certainly in the second half the
company results will benefit from the disposal of the IRS and in future trading
periods.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 12.0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">For the first time since 2012
MobilityOne have booked a first half post-tax profit of £111,534. This followed
a post-tax profit of £73,998 in the final 6 months of 2014 and compares
favourably to a loss post-tax of £29,526 in the same period last year. Whilst
this figure is less important for assessing cash-flow and growth trends, it’s
exciting to see a genuine improvement in company profitability in what is
normally the weaker of the two trading periods.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The cash
position continued to rise and was up by £247,259 year on year to £1,705,062 <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(H1, 2014: £1,457,803)</i>. This compares to
the year end 2014 cash position up by £288,262 during the year to £1,608,255 <i>(H2,
2013: £1,319,993)</i>. In the past six months we know the cash position has
risen by £96,807 which isn’t so significant. Cash generated and a lot of what
was due in trade and other receivables at Year End has been reduced to repay approximately
20% of the debt. Loans (including those owed to Directors) amounted to
£3,051,367 at H214 and has now fallen to £2,439,190. A very impressive net debt
reduction in six months from £1,443,112 to just £734,128 today.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">On a
year-by-year comparison we need to keep in mind that loans are still higher by
£539,556 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">H1, 2014</i>: £1,899,634)
largely as a result of that £330,000 purchase of property to serve as company
headquarters. The number of receivables due is also higher than the same period
last year and balance sheet growth of this kind should ensure there are no
liquidity issues. The net debt position continues to fall and that trend looks
to be improving at a quicker pace. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">The
difference in inventories + trade and other receivables (ITOR) vs trade
and other payables (TOP) is an interesting comparison for assessing trading
performance. According to first half 2015 results ITOR fell to £2,294,609 and
TOP rose to £1,397,576. That’s still an overall surplus of £897,033 but lower
than 6 months previous <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">(H2, 2014:
£1,510,008).</i> The surplus will likely repay loans or become cash on the
balance sheet in the next trading period. As we have seen, cash rose by £96,807
and loans fell by £612,177 in the first 6 months of 2015.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">Like I
mentioned last time “Expect a balance sheet with net debt significantly reduced
and much of the receivables due at the end of the 2014 realised into cash.” Net
debt is now just £734,128 and with an overall trade surplus of £897,033 we
could be looking at a net cash position by year end although more likely to
fall in H116.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;">High
revenue, low margins and profitability is due to MBO reinvesting funds back
into the company's research & development departments. There could at any
time be costs reductions and in fact we did see a fall in Administration costs
over the prior period. Gross profits were up in the period but margins lower
than the final 6 months of 2014. Much will depend on what the Ringgit does in
the coming months but whilst MBO’s market cap is £2.8 million I won’t be swayed
to sell if the Ringgit does continue its current trajectory lower.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="font-family: "times new roman" , serif; font-size: 12.0pt;"><br />
The HY results are tabled alongside the previous half year trading periods for
ease of analysis. I would expect second half operating profits somewhere
in the £500-600k bracket. Margins are improving and will continue to do so
according to company guidance. Disposing of loss making assets, reducing costs,
increasing customer base should all contribute to a very profitable second half
trading. The amount of cash/loans on balance can vary but I’m expecting net
debt to fall to around £300-350k by the end of the year. </span><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUy05aFYj6YNcUgZBnMiSx9E5j7wtUCsvjfvr1yLJ-CS7nny8iqhBsvwXNaAbI1adIKGr1Ie9ugc6QK1X2d9s-RgBnyBwcdgu3UQC0UbN-j_CEqh_Ko7DZQZthb5RshsTfBLLewoFf9yi6/s1600/MBO+Financial+Results+%2526+DEC+Est2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="175" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUy05aFYj6YNcUgZBnMiSx9E5j7wtUCsvjfvr1yLJ-CS7nny8iqhBsvwXNaAbI1adIKGr1Ie9ugc6QK1X2d9s-RgBnyBwcdgu3UQC0UbN-j_CEqh_Ko7DZQZthb5RshsTfBLLewoFf9yi6/s400/MBO+Financial+Results+%2526+DEC+Est2015.jpg" width="400" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGP4fosNyGdz2xUiSgCGq8PVOFfJ2oJRv1ZdqDtRGml_z2qketl7W72rtPmasVMNnIr39AbTU9ifug4ueIeeFvjdA4spfUHZIYjYgTkCOiYhrCfnGyUfdHcRs4VC4wT7fmjijcA4T7eDdX/s1600/MBO+Assets+%2526+DEC+Est2015.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="265" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGP4fosNyGdz2xUiSgCGq8PVOFfJ2oJRv1ZdqDtRGml_z2qketl7W72rtPmasVMNnIr39AbTU9ifug4ueIeeFvjdA4spfUHZIYjYgTkCOiYhrCfnGyUfdHcRs4VC4wT7fmjijcA4T7eDdX/s400/MBO+Assets+%2526+DEC+Est2015.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-58507263973112213432015-07-04T07:14:00.003-07:002015-07-04T07:45:41.405-07:00MobilityOne looks set for further growthIf you have followed my posts on the LSE forum you'll have witnessed my enthusiasm for this stock throughout 2015. Being a small-cap with only occasional updates it doesn't appear an exciting stock and the often ridiculous spread no doubt puts people off investing here. I would argue that it is still largely unnoticed (Final Results issued after trading hours didn't help matter). However as a recovery play it has proven to be a fine choice. <br />
<br />
Since the <a href="http://shareminator.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/mobility-one-mbo-expecting-to-move-back.html" target="_blank">February breakdown of MBO's Interim Results</a> the stock is trading around 30% up and the general trend has been like this since bottoming in December 2014. There has been opportunities to buy stock as low as 2.4p in the past couple of months and recently the intra-day bid jumped to 3.5<br />
<br />
Here are the reasons why I continue to hold MobilityOne and remain confident of further gains in the coming months.<br />
<br />
1) MBO turned revenue of £52.96m during 2014, up 3.7% since 2013. This growth comes even after the sale of subsidy holdings in the<span class="ra"> Cambodia and Indonesia operations during March 2014 to mitigate further
losses.</span><br />
<br />
<div class="sc">
2) As expected MBO turned an operating profit this year of £420,825. This was a substantial improvement on the operating loss recorded in 2013 of (£1,583,642)</div>
<div class="sc">
<br /></div>
3) The Group reported a profit after tax of £44,472 compared to a loss after tax of £2,018,562 in 2013<br />
<br />
4) More than 1,000 new agent banking points introduced by one of the
Group's banking partner recently in Malaysia is expected to contribute positively to the performance of the Group in 2015<br />
<br />
5) Cash position is up by £288,262 during the year to £1,608,255 <i>(2013: £1,319,993)</i> <br />
<br />
6) Crucial to understanding performance and outlook there appears to be a significant amount due in in trade and other receivables at the end of the period compared to the previous year. According to the accounts the difference in inventories + trade and other receivables vs trade and other payables has risen to £1,510,008 <i>(2013: £490,307)</i>. That's an increase of £1,019,701 during the year and will become cash on the balance sheet during the coming year<br />
<div class="ro">
<br /></div>
<div class="ro">
7) The net debt position has risen by £711,817 however appears manageable. According to the Final Results cash at year end stood at £1,608,255 <i>(2013:1,319,993)</i> and secured loans and borrowings were £2,977,944 <i>(2013: 1,977,865)</i> for net debt of £1,369,689 <i>(2013: £657,872)</i>. This is not a cause for concern however as the company note this increase was due to a slight increase of bank borrowings for working
capital purposes and a property loan which was used to purchase the
Group's new office in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. We know the property loan amounted to approximately £300,000. </div>
<div class="ro">
<br /></div>
<div class="ro">
Now add the positive growth in trade receivables due combined with the increasing cash position and add the increase in net debt position it appears liquid assets were up £596,146. If you strip out the £300,000 property acquisition cost because it is non-recurring and won't feature in 2015 cash-flow statements then it appears the company's profitable trade amounted to around £900,000 (although of course the vast majority of this is due).</div>
<div class="ro">
<br /></div>
<div class="ro">
Headline figures often hide the extent of trends as was the case at the last set of Interim Results. The company's operations were profitable but due to writedowns on balance sheet (non-cash impairments) the company booked a loss. It is not clear just how profitable MBO's operations really are currently given how much it already invests back into the company's research development and losses accumulated from the now disposed of subsidiaries. We should get a clearer picture in September once 2015 Interim Results are announced. Expect a balance sheet with net debt significantly reduced and much of the receivables due at the end of the 2014 realised into cash.<br />
<br />
Much like the previous article I have assessed the FY results and broken them down into their respective half year trading periods for ease of charting and analysis. As you can see in the final six months of the year operating profits were £379,688. Owing to the management decisions to dispose of <span class="qt"></span><span class="ra">the loss-making international remittance
services and consolidating income streams long established through its organic growth over the past 7 years MBO appear in better shape than ever. </span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-66841977281099589162015-02-28T15:00:00.000-08:002015-02-28T15:48:44.804-08:00Mobility One (MBO) trading back in profit<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">MobilityOne Limited (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=MBO&share=mobilityone" target="_blank">MBO</a>) is the holding company of a group of companies based
in Malaysia, which is in the business of providing e-commerce
infrastructure payment solutions and platforms through their technology
solutions, marketed under the brands MoCS and ABOSSE. The
Company has developed an end-to-end, e-commerce solutions, which connect
various service providers across several industries, such as banking,
telecommunication and transportation through multiple distribution
devices, such as electronic data capture (EDC) terminals, short
messaging services (SMS), automated teller machine (ATM) and Internet
banking. The Company’s technology platform has been designed to
facilitate cash, debit card and credit card transactions (according to
the device) from multiple devices while controlling and monitoring the
distribution of different products and services.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MBO&ArticleCode=2it9f1wo&ArticleHeadline=Final_Results" target="_blank">Full Year Results</a> in the year ending 31st December 2013 stated revenues of £51.06 million but given the nature of high cost operations, they booked a loss after tax of £2.02 million. Still the company managed to reduce loans and borrowings in the year to £1.98 million (down from £2.39 million YE2012). The cash and cash equivalents stood at £1.32 million.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">So a low margin, loss making outfit. Ignore it you might say. Well, if you read between the lines the company has been proactive in tackling the weaker outfits in its business group.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The reason for the loss as stated - "the Group recorded a higher loss after tax in 2013 mainly as a result of</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">1) a write down in value of certain assets </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">2) losses incurred in the Group's overseas operations in Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippines</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Write-downs are a standard accounting 'trick'. They can mask company profitability assuming they are not recurring. In MBO's case the non-cash loss on assets to offset net profits reduces tax obligations. More on the disposal of assets later. The second point is significant as the company note </span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><i>- "In view of the continued losses from the
operations in Cambodia and Indonesia ... the Company discontinued these
operations in March 2014 in order to mitigate further losses in the
future from these operations and to generate cost savings for the
Group."</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">So at the end of the first half (HY14) they had disposed of Cambodia and Indonesia
operations. This was set to impact second half figures, with reduced revenue for the group but
crucially improved margins and cash growth. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">Skip forward to August 2014, MBO released an <a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MBO&ArticleCode=xeat3w8o&ArticleHeadline=Purchase_of_an_office_in_Kuala_Lumpur_Malaysia" target="_blank">update</a> announcing the purchase of real estate in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia - their original base of
operations. The cost of the office space was a cool £333,550 payment and funded through cash in the
bank. The company were intending to refinance the property by
effectively remortgaging the majority of equity in it for c£300,000 in order to free up some additional cash.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The market has overlooked this development. Considering MBO were renting previously, they have taken the leap in securing an asset with existing cash which may appreciate in value over time. At the very least, high rental costs have been stripped and will be a forward saving. The loan was expected to be completed by September and the company intend to operate from their new office in early 2015. They will still rent one of
the two existing office premises in Kuala Lumpur. The company have assessed their growth market (Malaysia) and are utilising free cash to secure permanent residence (assets) in order to reduce expenses and increase company stability. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=MBO&ArticleCode=lek862c8&ArticleHeadline=Half_Yearly_Report" target="_blank">Half Year results</a> for 2014 were in line with expectations. Revenues of £23.5 million generated a loss
after tax of £30k. To put this into perspective the loss listed in H113 was £120k. An improvement on the same time last year, but still loss making...</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">However these results include trading figures for Cambodia and Indonesia for the first 3 months which were loss making and as a result MBO expect</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">- <i>"an improved trading performance in the second half of 2014"</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The company also took a non cash write-down (impairment) on disposal of the Indonesian operations in March 2014. If you look at the figures at face value there's not much to get excited about. However MBO made closer to £180k profit in the first half, and here's why...</span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><i>- "The
disposal of the subsidiary in Indonesia in March 2014 had resulted the
impairment loss on the amount due to the holding company of £0.56
million. However, the amount is partially mitigated by the gain on
disposal of the subsidiary of £0.35 million."</i></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">In simple English they booked a £560k NON-CASH
impairment, partially offset by a non-cash balance gain on the
disposal of a subsidiary for £350k. The difference of £210k is a non
cash impairment, effectively a one off write-down included as a loss
masking company profitability in order to reduce tax obligations. The
impairments were part of the re-organisation away from riskier growth
markets and focusing more towards Malaysian demand. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">MBO recorded
a loss of £30k in the period, so the difference is approximately £180k
gain (cash or equivalent). The cash
profit of £180k in the first half is impressive as Indonesia and
Cambodia
were loss making during the first three month. Focus on the cash and
cash equivalents and this confirms the picture more or less. Cash
increased to £1.46 million (£140k increase in 6 months) aided by <span class="ip">the effect of foreign exchange rate changes</span>,
whilst loans and borrowings of £1.89 million reduced by £90k. That's a
£230k reduction in net debt during the interim period! This whilst the
Cambodian and Indonesian operations where loss making. So what is
recorded as a loss on the balance sheet isn't always reflective of the
full picture.</span><br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">The second half performance
is expected to yield better results. The purchase of the property will see intangible assets up by £300k and assuming the loan has been processed then this will push up the borrowing total. It's impossible to say if any of the net cash profit will be used to repay existing loans or rather be kept as cash in the bank but we can say with some confidence the net debt position of £430k will have improved in the final six months of 2014. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;">MBO will likely reduce the net debt position although much will depend on whether they have refinanced the recently purchased property. What is clear is the balance sheet is healthier than six months earlier and the continuing trend of growth through stream-lining operations and generating cash will be recognised at some point by the markets<br /><br />Current market capitalisation of £2.5 million seems very cheap considering the growth potential in this part of the world. Anyone unsure of Malaysian economic activity should note the country relies to an extent on its domestic oil production and lower revenues may impact growth prospects in 2015. However the price of Brent Oil appears to have bottomed now, trading 20% higher since mid January.<br /><br /> The market has yet to factor in improvements made to the balance sheet since the disposals of certain loss making assets and I'm confident the trading update in March 2015 will spark some interest.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"> </span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-76523131049981395512014-09-19T05:57:00.001-07:002014-09-22T03:58:19.169-07:00Market Update Time<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">A long time ago I set myself a goal of summing up weekly market movements and events. As with all things secondary, real life takes precedence. New job, family commitments and a lack of spare time didn't help matters. Now I'm keen to pick up blogging where I left off. I should add I've not been completely absent from the market during this time, you can view my posting history on the <a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/member-info.asp?page=1&nick=the_shareminator" target="_blank">LSE bulletin board</a> and continue to track daily posts if you're interested. There are some great characters and knowledgeable investors over there. From today I will be pouring more effort into maintaining this blog, first lets' assess the stock picks suggested last year.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Advanced Computer Software (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=ASW" target="_blank">ASW</a>)</b><br />In December 2013 I wrote a piece explaining the merits of tech-play Advanced Computer Software, another consultant and provider of efficient business software. <a href="http://shareminator.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/advanced-computer-software-poised-for.html" target="_blank">Advanced Computer Software poised for further gains</a> - that turned out to be a conservative statement. In the year to date (since publishing the article) shares are up 27% trading at 120p. There have been opportunities to trade in and out during the period, in particular the dip in mid April before shares surged to their 52 week high in late May.</span></span><br />
<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">ASW Share Price Movements<br />
Dec 2013 - Sep 14</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The surge was buying in anticipation of excellent Final Results which were issued a few days later. Since then shares have bounced around the 116-120 range. </span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek">ASW now command a market capitalisation of £</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek">567.68m today little changed from earlier this year. </span></span>So why are shares continuing to perform around this level? <br /><br />Well growth has been impressive to date, but concerns over continued similar performance are weighing on shares. Over the past five years ASW have averaged comp</span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek">ound annual growth of 46% revenue, 45% adjusted EBITDA and 53% cash generation. <br /><br />Since then we have received the Half Year update this week. The figures are less impressive this time around but consistently positive nonetheless, with forecasts suggesting continued growth but at a reduced rate. As Vin Murria, </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek"><span class="y">Chief Executive puts it they now have <a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/advanced-comp-softw--asw-/rns/half-year-trading-update/201409160700137402R/" target="_blank"><i>"</i></a></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek"><span class="aa"><a href="http://www.investegate.co.uk/advanced-comp-softw--asw-/rns/half-year-trading-update/201409160700137402R/" target="_blank"><i>a very strong platform for long term sustainable growth"</i>.</a> <br /><br />As the figures and Murria's comment suggest the initial buzz surrounding the CSH takeover is over and they now have a platform from which to continue growth. The initial exciting period is over but that does not mean the company have peaked.</span> </span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek"><br /> </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek">Needless
to say ASW continues to impress in its operations and the reducing net
debt position will only increase confidence in the stock. </span></span></span>My view here is a continued hold. A lack of contract wins this quarter won't impact recurring revenue streams but limits growth potential so beware of overzealous broker targets. If you are able to pick up shares below 116p take the opportunity and likewise reduce some of your holdings above 124p. This will be a slow burner but one which will appreciate over the coming years.</span></span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="aek"> </span><b>Amara Mining (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=AMA&share=amara_ming" target="_blank">AMA</a>)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I first tipped Amara back on 8th November 2013 following the announcement of a cash for stock swap with Amlib in a piece titled <a href="http://shareminator.blogspot.co.uk/2013/11/amara-mining-speculative-deal-increases.html" target="_blank">Amara Mining - Speculative Deal Increases Cash Reserves</a> - that didn't prove to be the cheapest time to buy however as shares fell from 14.25p to 11.5p just one month later. The Q3 update threw in a few surprises that the market didn't appreciate which had people selling shares for below 12p! But early in the December, the trend reversed, pushing the stock up in anticipation of the Yaoure Resource Update. Incredibly this provided little upside on the day of announcement.<br /><br />Shares rose to 16.5p by early January before falling again in the lead up to Q4 results. There was a little movement during February but the important events occurred in the following month, with the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) released on the 12th March shares jumped back to 16.5p on the day and continued to rise for the next 4 trading sessions peaking at 19.13p! Following this breakout the shares have traded above 15.5p ever since.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"></span></span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Amara Mining Share Price Movements<br />
Nov 2013 - Sep 2014</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The share price continued to rise in May and as expected Amara's operational results were much improved in the Q114 update. This was the first time I can remember Amara actually retaining share value in the lead up to quarterly results. On the day of the AGM the share price rose sharply and by the 12th June the asking price was over 20p per share. This may have been due to the decision made to cancel the reporting issuer status in Canada. <a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=AMA&ArticleCode=vwqgo424&ArticleHeadline=TR1_Notification_of_Major_Interest_in_Shares" target="_blank">Ingalls & Snyder LLC purchased a cool 1.3m shares</a> on the 20th June which no doubt sparked new interest in the share sending it higher in the days after. <br /><br />July was a superb month with the share price climbing to 23.88 before briefly falling on fears the Ebola Virus might impact Amara's operations. On the 6th August the company issued a statement concerning the Ebola risk alongside general drilling results.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="js">"The Company's operations in West Africa remain
unaffected by the Ebola virus. There have been no confirmed cases in
Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso and John McGloin visited Yaoure last week
along with other senior management. There are travel restrictions and
enhanced hygiene requirements in place in Sierra Leone, however at
present this does not affect the Company's strategy for Baomahun as the
project is in an evaluative phase."</span></span></span></i></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Shares rallied, although it is worth noting that the company announced its production operations would cease the same day. The closing of Kalsaka was not due to take effect until later this year so came as some surprise. Given the risks associated with neighbouring states and the volatility in the gold price, the market seemed pleased that Amara brought forward the cessation, opting to instead retain cash. Little wonder as we later heard that Kalsaka </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="acc">total cash costs, including royalties, in Q2 2014 were
US$1,455 per ounce, a loss of US$2.4 million over the period. </span><br /><br />Focus is now being directed to Yaoure, </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="acg">the largest gold deposit in Côte d'Ivoire, with a 6.3 million ounce Mineral Resource. However production is s</span>till some way off and that's not accounting for any delays. Already we've heard that </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2014/09/18/world/science-health-world/west-african-powerhouse-cote-divoire-battles-keep-ebola/#.VB_ucBb46-c" target="_blank">International cocoa exporters have restricted staff movements</a> in the
country, such is the growing fear of
Ebola. This follows the closing of its borders with Guinea and Liberia. In the meantime cash depletion should be at a lower rate but may still cause a headache for shareholders. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It should be noted that following the deal with Amlib we are now after all disposing of exploration licences and the Drilling Contractors. Cash conservation and little desire to invest in new projects seems to be common right now amongst many of AIM's junior miners and who can blame them with gold being manipulated down to current levels.</span></span><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"> </span></i><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span class="acc">"Amara has taken the decision to enter into an
agreement to dispose of its assets in Liberia, which include three
exploration licences (Cestos, Kle Kle and Zwedru), and Amlib Drilling
Services Liberia. Exploration activity at Yaoure and Baomahun is expected to
generate stronger value for shareholders and thus Amara is focusing its
cash and management attention on these projects."</span></span></i></span></blockquote>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara is up 44% since my initial buy in of 14.25 and my plan now is to sell into any support above 23-24p. I expect we will retest 15-16p at some point next year as our cash position falls - this is a buying opportunity if you're in it for the long haul. The second mineral resource update is due in December 2014 and shares will likely rise in anticipation. After that Yaoure won't be producing until late 2015, the market knows it... even then cash-burn will continue until operations can be optimised. Baomahun is on hold but remains a viable future mine. The gold price is less of a concern right now. There is time to trade the swings before this becomes a producer once more.<br /><br />The company has published the following results and slides on their website today:</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://hsprod.investis.com/ir/clf/ir.jsp?page=news-item&item=1851455174606848" target="_blank">Yaoure Drilling Results </a><br /><a href="http://www.amaramining.com/DocumentDownload.axd?documentresourceid=382" target="_blank">Yaoure Central Zone Section</a><br /><a href="http://www.amaramining.com/DocumentDownload.axd?documentresourceid=383" target="_blank">Yaoure CMA Zone Sections</a><br /><a href="http://www.amaramining.com/DocumentDownload.axd?documentresourceid=385" target="_blank">Yaoure borehole plan</a><br /> <br /><br />Disclosure: I hold shares in ASW and AMA. My blog posts are a means of tracking performance and not a recommendation to buy/sell. Please always do your own research. </span></span><br />
<div id="stcpDiv" style="left: -1988px; position: absolute; top: -1999px;">
have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned
in this article. - See more at:
http://www.shareprophets.advfn.com/views/7846/vin-murria-delivers-with-another-strong-showing-by-advanced-computer-software#sthash.Mas4O7u0.dpuf</div>
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-16708831228978580222013-12-21T18:09:00.002-08:002014-09-21T15:26:33.455-07:00Advanced Computer Software poised for further gains<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It is not often I focus on technology plays and even rarer
that I tip one to friends and family. But this Aim-listed stock has
outperformed it’s sector and the wider markets and shows no signs of slowing. I
am talking about Advanced Computer Software (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=ASW" target="_blank">ASW:AIM</a>).</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I was first introduced to ASW back in May when I received a
tip from Shares Magazines. As a contrarian and a sceptic I immediately
dismissed the subjective claims of “a fantastic track record”, “genuine growth prospects”
and “an abundance of cash” as well as the deal-maker “shares could hit 120p
before the year is out”… early in the first paragraph. It struck me as having
already risen strongly early in the year from around the 68p range in January
2013 to 95p just two months later. Since then they have been stuck in the
80-90p range rarely moving above or below until recently breaking out in late
November. Having held on I’m finally in profit and will try and explain why I
will continue to hold ASW.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The business plan is centred around helping organisations strip
out unnecessary costs in order to increase efficiency. It’s flexible means of
applying these packages to customers allows a quick payback, often in weeks and
months rather than years. All businesses are susceptible to weaknesses at times
in human resources, payroll, document management and procurement and this where
ASW comes in.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Vin Murria, the chief executive of Advanced Computer Software
has been running the company for over 5 years now, turning it from a microcap
with approximately £6 million revenue into a mid-cap making a record £99 million
in the first half of this year. Back in May when I was looking into ASW they
were making around £120 million per annum. Valued today at £460m (97p) they
hold approximately £40m in cash. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">If you’re new to the story then read on with this summary to
date. ASW raised £44 million from investors back in February 2013 at 80p partly
explaining the gradual retrace back down from a 95p peak to around the 80p
level, however this has twice acted as support since. Soon after the company announced
what the funds would be used for, placing an offer to buy Computer Software
Holdings (CSH) in a £110 million deal. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">According to SharesMagazine, buying the legal back office
solutions specialist was “an intriguing move” since Vin Murria had been part of
the team behind CSH before it was sold to private equity in 2007. Was the chief
executive keen to acquire the company for a purely business purpose or was there
a sentimental element to it? Well it’s hard to argue against the business case,
CSH made earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA)
of £15 million on £62 million of sales in 2012, 85% of which was recurring
business from around 12,000 customers. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">“This means the enlarged Advanced Computer will be able to cross-sell
a host of business analytics, data management, mobile delivery tools across its
healthcare, business solutions and managed services divisions to some 20,000
clients.”</span></i></span></div>
</blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Of importance in December 2012 the £7.25 million acquisition
of Serco Learning opened the door to the new education market and may prove a
platform for further related buys in the future. Apparently, Advanced Computer Software
has already spotted £2.5 million of duplicate costs that can be stripped out of
the combined business, although this looks like an underestimate. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Compare the company back in May when Shares Magazine wrote;</span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">“Advanced Computer has net debt of £65 million; £40 million
shy of its new banking facilities. With EBITDA margins of over 20% and a cash
flow yield in excess of 6% expected by analysts for the year to February 2014,
expect the borrowings to be paid down fast. This puts the company on an
enterprise value (EV) of about £440 million and implies a current year EV/EBITDA
multiple of 10. The price/earnings (PE) ratio is 13.6, about a 30% discount to
the UK software sector.”</span></i></span></div>
</blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In September 2013 ASW released it’s Half Year trading update
and its share price reacted favourably closing over 10% up for the week. Net
debt is down to less than £51 million. EBITDA margins of 25% don’t tell the full
story as in fact the EBITDA has more than doubled in the year to date to £16.9m
in the first half (H1 2012: £7.4m). The price/earnings ratio is now 13.5 even
after the recent rise and presumes a conservative estimate for second half
earnings. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">“Advanced 365 Managed Services has continued to benefit from
cross-selling to the Group's large, high quality customer base where the
division's unique proposition has minimised the impact from continued price
pressure from customers as Cloud offerings become established. Advanced 365
Managed Services' service and delivery models were comprehensively reviewed in
the first half year to optimise scalability, which enabled the division to
secure its largest managed services contract to date, just after the period end
– the sum of £14.5 million over a 5 year period.”</span></i></span></div>
</blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Underlying trading
continues to beat forecasts with organic growth up strong across all divisions.
The market has begun to react to recent results but will have to adjust for increasing
profits from 2015 onwards.<span class="tb"> According to the Half Year update, 38%
of the August 2013 contract value will be recognised by February 2014 so we
should expect further positive developments in line with expectations. ASW will
realise 42% of the contract value in FY15 and the balance from FY16 onwards.</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="font-size: small;">“Material profits growth, rapid debt reduction, more cost
savings and a maiden dividend could all prompt further share price appreciation.”</span></i></span></div>
</blockquote>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Future growth is expected to come from a variety of
customers but the NHS is a priority. There has been a surge of interest in
workforce mobilisation across health and social care mainly due to the healthcare
demands of an ageing population. The London Community and Mental Health
procurement project reaches a key stage in the next six to nine months with 68
contracts in community and social care expected to come up between 2014 and
2016. ASW is already working with two NHS trusts, Medway Community Health Trust
and Kent Community Health Trust and are well placed to gain further contract
wins during this period.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The focus on mobile products iNurse and iConnect is also key
with more than 31,000 users signed at the half year, up by 6,000 since the year
end. The Group's Adastra 111 solution has been very well received by the market
and is now the preferred supplier to NHS 111 providers, servicing over 85% of
NHS 111 delivery in England. Growth will be slower now that ASW has 85% of the
market but this is repeat business and unlikely to change in the short term. Following
the acquisition of CSH, ASW now provides over 5,000 private sector law firms
with legal and back office software and services and is the fastest growing
solution in the market. Cross-selling of the wider Advanced portfolio of
products is expected to underpin further growth in the near term.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Further growth opportunities will come from Group products
and services in both the public and private sectors, driven by the continuing
need for efficiency, cost savings, workforce mobilisation and regulatory
compliance. Healthcare demands are only likely to go one way, with increasing
growth in the community and social care sectors and the continued demand for
effective mobile applications. The company has shown its capable of absorbing
smaller businesses and is looking for “further potential acquisitions to consolidate
Advanced's position within its markets” which will enable it to push it’s
effective cross-selling strategy.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The case for ASW remains strong but I would advise caution
in choosing a point for entry. We are in uncharted territory right now,
things could get rather rough. But if you can appreciate where this company is
headed you will probably agree that they look comparatively cheap on a sector
and p/e basis. I think a share price of £1.06 valuing the company at £500m will
be achievable come the next set of results in March 2014. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: white;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-48271913401373303632013-11-17T15:27:00.000-08:002014-09-21T15:30:56.957-07:00Weekly Market Summary 17/11/13<h2>
</h2>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I am going to set a goal of writing a short market summary at the end of the week, focusing on certain events, notable market changes and significant stock or commodity movements in the past seven days. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Junior Mine Report </span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I recommend reading PwC's latest <a href="http://www.pwc.com/en_CA/ca/junior-mining-headquarters/publications/pwc-junior-mine-2013-10-en.pdf" target="_blank">Junior Mine October 2013 report</a> in which John Gravelle highlights that it’s the junior mining sector that is suffering the most despite majors taking costly write-downs, suffering from weak commodity prices and a sector-wide confidence issue. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Anyone trading AIM will notice the comparable to this ASX focused report in which PwC suggest junior markets have been plummeting since 2011 following a brief period of recovery after 2008 lows. The market valuations of the top 100 TSX listed mining companies has fallen over 40% annually for the second consecutive year. This is an accurate reflection of what has happened to valuations across AIM. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The report makes for bleak reading with reports of cash, short-term investments and capital expenditures all down by hundreds of millions, with "explorers making up the largest share".
But despite warnings from certain industry commentators such as John Kaiser, there have only been a handful of companies going under, with many able to reduce operating costs and conserve capital, 7 reportedly de-listed for adverse reasons. </span></span><br />
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Margin Squeeze</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The Footsie miners shed 2.4% to 16,131.09 in line with gold, platinum, copper and
aluminium all falling. The only notable riser was iron ore. Margins are being squeezed across the board with Antofagasta suffering on its earnings update despite an increase in production. The same story was true of Vedanta Resources as revenue fell despite increased output. This is becoming a common theme amongst producers, those highly leveraged falling hardest. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQPKyERXFNFbksCfD2yuZ2WLgwGiySc5_CA1Dv4ykOd5A42fZSCGguCHTFY0r1jIfESZUpUDTka29EjzVxf8YqWK4aCcljgEekWzHVDGz1W96AbyRj60KULcHRglXOETiRzo_n3xuZeFTH/s1600/amara+mine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQPKyERXFNFbksCfD2yuZ2WLgwGiySc5_CA1Dv4ykOd5A42fZSCGguCHTFY0r1jIfESZUpUDTka29EjzVxf8YqWK4aCcljgEekWzHVDGz1W96AbyRj60KULcHRglXOETiRzo_n3xuZeFTH/s400/amara+mine.jpg" height="262" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">One stock I like to follow, Avocet Mining (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?SharePrice=avm&goButton=Go" target="_blank">AIM:AVM</a>) a West African gold miner
completed the buy-back of a gold hedge from McQuarie Bank. They have a highly leveraged gold project at the Inata Mine in Burkina Faso which is struggling to turn a profit despite targetting 130,000 ounces this year. If they are able to survive in this climate then the chances are much improved for the likes of Amara Mining (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=AMA&share=amara_ming" target="_blank">AIM:AMA</a>), another gold producer located in Burkina Faso. Avocet's total cash costs amounted to $1,195/oz in the third quarter whilst Amara are targetting reduced cash costs as it brings the Sega mine into production. It's total cash costs are expected to fall from $1,357/oz in the first half to below $800/oz in the second half</span><span style="font-size: small;">. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I've previously stated my position in Amara and still believe quarterly results (Q3) due this quarter will be considerably better than earlier in the year. To recap in Q1 2013 gross revenue of almost $14m, cash costs of $10.5m for a
margin of approx $400/oz resulted in EBITDA of $3m. Amara expect costs will reduce to around $700-800/oz and with gold trading at around $1300/oz margins should be higher at $500-600/oz in Q3 results, potentially rising to $600-700/oz in Q4 results should gold bounce off the current support level.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">"If we assume 15,000 ounces are produced at
costs of $700/oz and a conservative gold price of $1300/oz, EBITDA of
$8m is achieved per quarter. This increases to $12m if production
reaches 20,000 ounces."</span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">It seems I'm not alone in recognising Amara's potential as RDV Corporation, a majority owned private company run on behalf of the DeVos family who co-founded Amway, one of the largest U.S.
private firms has taken a 21% stake through a share swap. Assets from their exploration company Amlib, including
$10 million cash and a profitable drill operator are included in the deal.</span><span style="font-size: small;"> RDV have been actively investing in West African gold for over a
decade but Amara is one of the first to bring in a major U.S. family fund. If Amara fall short of production targets only achieving 15,000 ounces and costs are reduced at a slower pace in Q3 realising a $500/oz margin they should still turn EBITDA of $6.7m</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">There is a concern that the gold price will fall further. Such a move would impact marginal producers and indeed is deterring investors now as gold toys with the $1,270 support level. What will</span><span style="font-size: small;"> cause gold to break
out/down? This is a much debated topic and one that I would like to discuss another term. In the short term US jobless figures are likely to
support the bearish case, the US continues to show signs of recovery. The strengthening of the US dollar alongside the monthly QE figure of $85bn has helped push US stocks to new highs. Is this the reason for gold falling? Perhaps not, but it goes some way to explaining why ETFs are being sold down on a huge scale.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">What will cause a shift in sentiment? For one thing, we know the US debt
ceiling is due to peak again in January so expect some market volatility. Many commentators also expect tapering of QE to begin early next year. There is an argument to be made for the physical demand which has increased yet again and is up year on year. This won't be a surprise to many, the East are buying physical. The West are still reducing according to the <a href="http://www.gold.org/investment/statistics/demand_and_supply_statistics" target="_blank">World Gold Councils Q3 Report</a>, ETFs sold significantly higher than any increase in physical demand. Is there manipulation going on? Probably, and it stands to reason those selling will begin to reduce at a lower rate.<span class="cont_com" id="content_of_comment_25904062"><span id="text_content_of_comment_25904062"> US economic growth is expected to plateau at around 2% of GDP once QE draws to
a close whilst their deficit reduction programme will actually begin to rise again in 2016 according to the </span></span>Congressional Budget Office. This year’s lower deficit can be largely attributed to short-term
economic factors rather than systemic reforms in the federal budget, for never has the deficit fallen from such a high level.</span><span class="cont_com" id="content_of_comment_25904062"><span id="text_content_of_comment_25904062" style="font-size: small;"> The sign to look for will be an
improvement in ETF positions in the next quarterly WGC report. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Tips </span></span></h3>
<h3>
</h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Amara (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?SharePrice=ama&goButton=Go" target="_blank">AIM:AMA</a>)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">I'm expecting a significant improvement in quarterly earnings as well as a more robust balance sheets thanks to the deal with Amlib for $10m additional cash. Any weakness in the price of gold is unlikely to reduce the impact reduced costs and increased production will bring. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Target 18-20p before January 2014</i>.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- W Resources (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=WRES&share=w_resources" target="_blank">AIM:WRES</a>)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Exciting quarter for W Resources as it nears completion in constructing its </span><span style="font-size: small;">tailings processing facilities. The pre-concentration plant was expected to be complete in October and according to the company things are progressing on time and on budget. They will begin producing tailings from next month for a period of approximately 3 years at which point they should be in a positive to bring their flagship La Parilla Mine into production. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Target 1.2-1.3p before January 2014</i>.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Tertiary Minerals (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?SharePrice=tym&goButton=Go" target="_blank">AIM:TYM</a>)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Volumes have been increasing in recent weeks and the share price peaked at around 8p in anticipation of drilling results and
resource classification due early next year. They recently completed a financing deal with YAGM. The MB Nevada project is expected to weigh in larger than the Storuman project which is currently Tertiary's most advanced deposit as historical drill data and two phases of drill-work is compiled into a JORC resource. Now I am no chartist but even I can tell the stock is in an uptrend so I would suggest interest will continue to grow as we approach the second set of drill results, followed by a brief period of consolidation as we await the JORC resource early next year before further gains as value is recognised.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>Target 11-12p before March 2014.</i></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Hopefully anyone following will be able to see how accurate these targets are. My strategy is threefold in this current climate - analysis of trends, volumes and catalysts. Ignore the 'company potential' if any of these factors change for the worse and take profits. </span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "Helvetica Neue",Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <i></i> </span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00534606863279239396noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7867332229962605058.post-54201582319262798212013-11-08T05:41:00.001-08:002014-09-21T15:31:56.259-07:00Amara Mining - Speculative Deal Increases Cash Reserves<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: Georgia,"Times New Roman",serif;"> </span></span></h2>
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Like many of the small publicly traded gold stocks Amara Mining (<a href="http://www.lse.co.uk/SharePrice.asp?shareprice=AMA&share=amara_ming" target="_blank">AIM:AMA</a>) has been at the mercy of the markets ever since they turned sour in 2011. Coupled with a falling gold price Amara has suffered it's fair share of set backs leaving investors with losses and good deal less hair! The share price has fallen</span> from 120p less than two years ago to below 15p today, capitalising the
company at a little over £24 million. But the winds have now shifted favourably.</span></span></div>
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<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCC8RLkPaQy5KvZQrDx1yk2ju2Lly_RnfQaGGwkfgG1tCjapF3cEKGezY2rGvYSXpKIADdLs6BdwDtSstgmDGRPhjx_XNZHEf-8LA_QIy6nhpRc1O__LTE6crF0xSqa2s08YLfJyALBVSW/s1600/amara+projects.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCC8RLkPaQy5KvZQrDx1yk2ju2Lly_RnfQaGGwkfgG1tCjapF3cEKGezY2rGvYSXpKIADdLs6BdwDtSstgmDGRPhjx_XNZHEf-8LA_QIy6nhpRc1O__LTE6crF0xSqa2s08YLfJyALBVSW/s400/amara+projects.jpg" height="270" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">West African Projects operated by Amara Mining</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Organic Growth Projects</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara Mining has been developing 3 core projects using cash-flow primarily from its producing Kalsaka mine to fund resource exploration and definition. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Fieldwork was curbed earlier in 2013 in light of the falling gold price, reducing margins and resulting cash-flows however despite gold trading near it's base Amara are once again looking to expand their operations, here's a brief overview.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>- Kalsaka/Sega project in Burkina Faso (78%)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Short term cash-flow is being generated from the Kalsaka gold mine (53koz produced in 2012), though this is now nearing the end of its mine life and is to be supplemented by the nearby Sega deposit. The recent acquisition of the neighbouring Sega project located
20km north of Kalsaka hosts an Indicated Resource of 450,366oz
(8.3Mt at 1.69 g/t) and an Inferred Resource of 147,344oz (2.9Mt at
1.58g/t). Production of 147,000 higher grade ounces are expected, extending the Kalsaka Life of Mine (LOM) to Q1 2015. Mining of the higher grade Sega ore began in Q3 2013, the result of a re-optimised mine plan to reduce risk and lower cash costs. The acquisition of Sega has not diminished the focus on
exploration however as the company continue to target additional ounces at the nearby Yako, Zoungwa and Rondo prospects to increase the LOM.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>- Baomahun project in Sierra Leone (100%)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The 'stand-out' project, expected to deliver significant cashflow from H2 2015 onwards when it will commence production. Amara has completed the Feasibility Study which estimated reserves of 1.21 million ounces
(23.3Mt at 1.62g/t) at a gold price of US$1,100oz in July 2013 and resources of 2.78 million ounces with 2.24 million ounces
(38.4Mt at 1.82g/t) in the Indicated category and the balance inferred (6.6Mt at 2.52g/t for 540koz)</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Production of 148,550 ounces of gold per annum is anticipated over the first
six years of production at head grades with a mine life of at least 11 years. Underground
and additional open pit mining potential exists with grades shown to increase at
depth and further deposits identified.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b>- Yaoure Gold Project in Côte
d’Ivoir (90%)</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara's early stage exploratory project has a resource estimate of 0.3
million Indicated ounces (8.0Mt at 1.31g/t) and 1.7 million Inferred
ounces (34.6Mt at 1.52g/t) as of March 2013. </span><span style="font-size: small;">Yaoure (previously Angovia) is a former producer previously operated by
Compagnie Minière d’Afrique (CMA), which produced 1.9 million tonnes of
ore with an average grade of 3.9 g/t gold over five years, but was
closed in 2003 due to the prevailing gold price. Amara acquired it in 2004 and had commissioned it by September 2009. The existing mine infrastructure and nearby tarred roads make it an ideal location for a CIL/CIP operation. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h4>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Merger Acquisition of Amlib</span></span></span></h4>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivL-79ANT4d8ww-cxpvmyZhqflNSoLnkrMOMfTIhmeFz3caKHYvjWuZt2YxMfdk5IReNCTkg4YjOnjHR2VSQFQ0rQUuBUPPV3HLu30h-oWAC-ZaBs2yGctLkeJVUFLmnVzQ8ypaR0E-5Zx/s1600/Amara+new+proj.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivL-79ANT4d8ww-cxpvmyZhqflNSoLnkrMOMfTIhmeFz3caKHYvjWuZt2YxMfdk5IReNCTkg4YjOnjHR2VSQFQ0rQUuBUPPV3HLu30h-oWAC-ZaBs2yGctLkeJVUFLmnVzQ8ypaR0E-5Zx/s320/Amara+new+proj.jpg" height="310" width="320" /></a></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="bp">Amara Mining </span><span class="bp">has now effectively carried through a merger acquisition of Amlib Holdings via a share purchase agreement. The terms see Amara gain $10
million cash</span><span class="bp"> which Amara intend to use for development at
Baomahun and exploration at Yaoure (near term focus unchanged). </span></span></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span class="bp">Amara will also acquire </span>ADSL, the
cash generating drilling contractor. Amara stand to save $3m in exploratory costs at Yaoure in 2014 as a result whilst netting additional revenue from third party drill contracts. They generated $1.3m unaudited
pre-tax profit in 11 months to 31 Aug 2013 and are the owners of 5 rigs, plus a
fleet of support vehicles.</span></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara will gain three exploration licences in Liberia: Cestos, Kle Kle and Zwedru. The Cestos Project licence area is 1,870km2 and the most advanced of the three. To date a strike length of 85km has been established, similar in geological appearance to the Ashanti gold belt (>100Moz resources). Initial drilling completed on 2 prospects – Innis and Numon South revealed results including 31.00m at 1.20g/t and 24.43m at 3.14g/t.</span></span></div>
<div class="bv">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">The majority shareholder in Amlib, RDV has been invested since 1999 and will own 20.8-22.8% of Amara
following the transaction, their shares are subject to a 12 month
lock-in period and orderly market arrangements for a further 12 months
meaning the effects of dilution won't be felt for at least 12 months. The
agreement will be satisfied through the purchase of $11.0 million worth of shares to be issued, 51,846,782 to be precise which results in 30% dilution for holders. However as RDV's stake is illiquid, the dilutionary effects are limited.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h4>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Financial Assessment </span></span></h4>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">An adjusted pre-tax loss of
$4.63 million was recorded in H1 2013 largely due to falling revenue as a result of declining gold sales (27,699 ounces to 14,514 ounces in the same period). This was despite an average realised gold price of $1,518 per ounce. Margins were squeezed further as cash costs increased to</span><span style="font-size: small;"> $1,357 per ounce during the period. </span><span style="font-size: small;">All in sustaining cash costs represented an
additional $126/oz ($18m) which
was used to fund capital and exploration costs. </span><span style="font-size: small;">It was well known Kalsaka output would fall, the reduced plant availability, lock-up of gold in
circuit, combined with lower grade ore all added to the poor set of
results.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>"The overall group result was
impacted by a high depreciation charge at Kalsaka as it nears the end of
its life."</i></span></span></div>
</blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">However Amara have been busy improving infrastructure for future production. They recently upgraded the crushing circuit which will process some of the higher grade ore
that has been stockpiled during previous quarters and also material
from Sega. Haul road construction has been completed, blast hole drilling at Sega commenced and trucking of Sega material begun. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></div>
<h3 class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Production Plan Re-Optimised</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As a response to falling gold prices, the mine plan for Sega was re-optimised at a gold price of
US$1,100 per ounce in Q2 2013. Higher grade material will be processed early in the mine life ( 2.41g/t
grade) reducing cash costs to circa $700/oz. This is a stark contrast to the Kalsaka average head
grade of 1.13g/t during the first half with cash costs of $1,357/oz. Sega is now expected to produce a total of 97,000 ounces until the end of 2014 however there is the potential to extend production by resulting to the original project parameters in the event the gold price recovers.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBXR_Qf39LZYm9RCEESW3HbUCfA9OTR-OtT2jvLlrvodBh18p67-LFhF0OzUmNY64wq0FGUb-p7j1vDgqKJ8idQTLl4chIOOEqUOCX9pZT0Z0aRlmzX64G3i18ch0KlRDSjDTJU5vEaUX0/s1600/Amara+Sega+plan.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBXR_Qf39LZYm9RCEESW3HbUCfA9OTR-OtT2jvLlrvodBh18p67-LFhF0OzUmNY64wq0FGUb-p7j1vDgqKJ8idQTLl4chIOOEqUOCX9pZT0Z0aRlmzX64G3i18ch0KlRDSjDTJU5vEaUX0/s400/Amara+Sega+plan.jpg" height="130" width="400" /></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<h3 class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Production Figures</span> </span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara has reaffirmed production guidance of 50-60,000 ounces despite falling sales in Q2 2013 of 8,600
ounces to 5,900 ounces. This was largely a result of stockpiling gold bullion in response to the falling gold price with sales totalling 14,500 ounces of the 19,000 ounces produced in H1 2013. The markets are awaiting confirmation as to whether Amara are still on track to increase sales to 15-20,000 ounces in the final two quarters. <br /><br />In Q1 2013 gross revenue of almost $14m, cash costs of $10.5m for a margin
of approx $400/oz resulted in EBITDA of $3m. This $400/oz margin should be achievable if we assume
conservative cost reductions to $900/oz and a conservative gold price of
$1300/oz.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara are expecting costs to reduce to around $700/oz however and expecting 15-20,000 ounces production. If we assume </span><span style="font-size: small;">15,000 ounces are produced at costs of $700/oz and a conservative gold price of $1300/oz, EBITDA of $8m is achieved per quarter. This increases to $12m if production reaches 20,000 ounces.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Cash Position</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara has seen it's cash & cash equivalents position reduce from over $32 million by Q4 2012 to $23.7 million by Q1 2013 down further to a little over $18 million at the end of Q2 2013. Of the $23.7m, cash comprised $18.2 million and $5.5 million in
gold bullion. </span><span style="font-size: small;">Due to an additional $4 million worth of gold bullion being stockpiled in Q2 they retained approximately $9 million of gold which helped offset the falling cash figure.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i> “During
Q2 2013 the gold price was highly volatile… as a result, Amara chose to
sell a limited amount of gold, representing only 59% of gold produced
in the period, with a higher amount of bullion held in stock"</i></span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Following the recent acquisition of Amlib, cash & cash equivalents have increased to $28 million. If Q3 2013 results are as expected, Amara should now be increasing it's cash position and output in Q4 2013 is likely to be higher still as any issues are ironed out. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Strategic Partnership with Samsung</span></span></h3>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">In 2012 Amara came to agreement with Samsung, receiving $20 million by loan and supplying Samsung with gold bullion. </span><span style="font-size: small;">The deal has much greater significance for Amara beyond the initial
loan however as it paves the way for a much larger financing
deal as part of the development of the Baomahun mine.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i> </i><i>“The larger benefit is that Amara has forged a relationship
with a global conglomerate that is a large gold consumer. The
implications for this are great and reduce Amara’s overall funding risk
as well as a secure gold supply for Samsung."</i></span></span></blockquote>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;">
<span style="font-size: small;">Near-Term Catalysts</span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Third quarter results from the Sega deposit are expected to significantly improve cash-flow and are due by the end of Q4 2013. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- Following in-fill drilling completed at Yaoure during H1 2013, a resource update and a preliminary economic
assessment (PEA) are expected by the end of Q4 2013.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- The results of the </span><span style="font-size: small;">optimisation works to the Baomahun project are due by the end of Q4 2013. Within the results should be a case for a smaller, higher grade pit and plant, the underground mine potential and the
hydro-electric power study. </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">- According to Tom Winnifrith there is the potential to farm out <span style="line-height: 115%;">Yaoure. A cash payment would aid in the development of Baomahun. </span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Risks</span></span></h3>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7oiRJpofrz2WqVCAwwc6Xrjy7NhQb1MLMv2nJ0APLB9-3hZalpsiqLtkK-MRacvktIzPuserXXZDZFHNdRcjMx7DYrN9ruhjALEo_fot1Vo8DDWVnC1srudLKQtGhBWCFvXgMz2ZvwPUC/s1600/Amara+Baomahun+economics.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh7oiRJpofrz2WqVCAwwc6Xrjy7NhQb1MLMv2nJ0APLB9-3hZalpsiqLtkK-MRacvktIzPuserXXZDZFHNdRcjMx7DYrN9ruhjALEo_fot1Vo8DDWVnC1srudLKQtGhBWCFvXgMz2ZvwPUC/s400/Amara+Baomahun+economics.jpg" height="380" width="400" /></a><span style="font-size: small;">Whilst Sega is economic at current gold prices and indeed down to $1100/oz, Amara are highly leveraged due to overall group costs. The life of mine has been reduced to fifteen months however there is potential
for the operating life to be extended should the gold price strengthen, with lower-grade resources becoming economic again. Exploration continues but at a reduced rate due to the current climate. </span></span></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>"Amara could have a break in production of at least 12
months in 2015 between the ending of operations at Kalsaka Sega and the
commencement of mining at the planned Baomahun project in Sierra Leone”.</i> </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">
</span></span></blockquote>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 14.25pt;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">As things stand the Baomahun project economics remain far from convincing, with a NPV of $127 million based on a gold price of $1350/oz and a discount rate of 8%. With the gold price hovering precariously over $1300/oz the economics seem less than robust. Amara are conducting studies into a smaller, high grade operation and also underground mining options. </span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">
</span></span>
<br />
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: small;">Looking Forward</span></span></span></h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">Amara have demonstated that they will pursue
alternative funding options to equity raises through the deal with Samsung ($20m) and now Amlib ($10m). These deals not only strengthen Amara's financial position but also their shareholder base through RDV holding a considerable stake. This latest deal is a fantastic result and much preferred to a placing.</span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">After its period of transition, Amara is well positioned to take advantage of production at it's new high grade Sega
deposit. The
market has yet to assess the impact it has had on results but if my
calculations are correct Amara will return to profitability and ramp up
production in Q4 2013.</span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;">According to Broker Mirabaud Securities (prior to Amlib deal) production
is due to rise to 70,000 ounces in 2014 and has placed a 32p per share valuation on total cash cost of under $800 per ounce. Its modelling assumes a gold price declining
from current spot levels to a long-term price assumption of $1,200 per ounce by
mid-2016.</span></span><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i>“With Sega’s higher grades fuelling substantially stronger
margins in 2014, the more so with the re-optimised mine plan, we remain of the
view that Amara should be able to meet corporate level expenses, including debt
repayments to Samsung ($10m due in H2 2013, and $10m due in 2014), while
continuing to evaluate its other projects.”</i>
</span></span></blockquote>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">There are a number of near term catalysts including a resource update and PEA for Yaoure project of which only 40% of the project has been drilled out. Amara will likely step up its exploration across the portfolio following the increase in cash reserves, focusing on extending the Sega life of mine and further resource defintion at Baomahun and Yaoure. Yaoure could open up strategic opportunities in the short term to help fund Baomahun which will go ahead regardless of gold price movement. Should gold recover the original Sega PEA will be adopted once again, the current 97koz production schedule over 15 month will extend to 163koz over 21 months. </span></span></h3>
<h3>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small; font-weight: normal;">I am holding Amara shares at 14.25p and will reassess progress made during H2 2013 early next year. Short term target of 25p.</span></span></h3>
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